SaaS lifetime value calculator
Estimate customer lifetime value from monthly account revenue, gross margin, churn, and monthly account expansion.
Inputs
Required whole number from 1 to 10,000,000.
Required monthly recurring subscription revenue.
Required monthly revenue per account in direct mode.
Required percentage from 0% to 100%.
Required percentage above 0% and up to 100%.
Optional fixed monthly increase in ARPA; zero is allowed.
Estimated gross-margin contribution from one account over its modeled lifetime.
LTV = 0.5 × lifetime × [2 × ARPA + expansion × (lifetime – 1)] × gross margin.
Model breakdown
Monthly contribution schedule
| Month | Modeled ARPA | Survival weight | Expected revenue | Expected gross contribution | Cumulative gross contribution |
|---|
How to use the SaaS lifetime value calculator
What this calculator does
This calculator estimates the gross-margin lifetime value of one SaaS customer account. It combines monthly average revenue per account, gross margin, customer churn, and a fixed monthly account-expansion assumption. It is not a forecast of booked cash, recognized revenue, valuation, or the exact behavior of a specific cohort. It assumes constant monthly churn and fixed-dollar expansion.
When to use it
Use it when you want to compare LTV with customer acquisition cost, test how lower churn changes economic value, assess whether an upsell program can materially improve account value, or convert an MRR-and-customer snapshot into ARPA. The U.S. Small Business Administration's discussion of managing business finances provides broader context for using operating metrics alongside cash-flow and financial statements.
How to calculate
- The calculator opens with a complete demonstration set: 25 customers, $6,000 MRR, 65% gross margin, 4% monthly churn, and $0 monthly expansion. A validated example Excel workbook is immediately available.
- Choose Derive from MRR when you know total monthly recurring revenue and customer count. Choose Enter ARPA directly when the monthly revenue per account is already known.
- Replace the sample assumptions. Results update live. Review the headline LTV, expected lifetime, base LTV, expansion contribution, and monthly contribution schedule.
- Select Download Excel to export the current validated model. Select Reset to clear the demonstration and all calculated content. After Reset, Excel export remains disabled until a complete valid state is entered again.
Input guide
How should ARPA be entered? is a required mode control. Derived mode uses customer count and MRR; direct mode uses ARPA. Switching modes does not alter the formulas, only the source of ARPA.
Number of customers is required in derived mode and accepts a whole number from 1 to 10,000,000, such as 25. More customers with unchanged MRR lowers ARPA and LTV. A common mistake is entering seats when revenue is tracked by account.
Monthly recurring revenue is required in derived mode and accepts U.S. dollar amounts using a period decimal separator, such as 6000 or 6,000.00. Exclude one-time services. Higher MRR increases ARPA and LTV when customer count is unchanged.
Average revenue per account (ARPA) is required in direct mode and accepts a nonnegative monthly dollar amount, such as 240. It is revenue per account, not gross profit. Increasing ARPA raises base LTV directly.
Gross margin is required and accepts 0% through 100%, such as 65. It represents the share of revenue remaining after direct cost of service. Do not enter the cost percentage; if direct costs are 35%, gross margin is 65%.
Monthly churn is required, must be greater than 0%, and may not exceed 100%. A value of 4 means 4% per month. Do not enter annual churn without converting it to a monthly assumption. Lower churn increases expected lifetime and can increase LTV sharply because lifetime is modeled as 1 divided by monthly churn.
Monthly account expansion is optional and accepts a nonnegative monthly dollar amount, such as 10. It models a fixed increase in ARPA each month. Higher expansion increases the expansion contribution and total LTV.
Output guide
Customer lifetime value (LTV) is the estimated gross-margin contribution from one account over its modeled lifetime, shown in dollars. Calculated ARPA is either MRR divided by customers or the direct ARPA input. Expected lifetime is 1 divided by monthly churn expressed as a decimal. First-month gross contribution equals ARPA times gross margin. Expansion uplift in LTV isolates the amount added by the expansion assumption.
Base LTV before expansion shows the value with expansion set to zero. Expansion contribution is the incremental value caused by the monthly dollar uplift. Revenue retained as gross margin matches total LTV because LTV is defined here on a gross-margin basis. In the table, Modeled ARPA is the month-specific account revenue, Survival weight is the modeled probability weight, Expected revenue is ARPA times survival weight, Expected gross contribution applies gross margin, and Cumulative gross contribution sums the displayed schedule rows.
Worked example
With 25 customers and $6,000 MRR, calculated ARPA is $240.00. A 4% monthly churn assumption implies an expected lifetime of 25 months. With no account expansion, the formula reduces to ARPA × lifetime × gross margin: $240 × 25 × 65% = $3,900.00. This matches the first-open result and the exported workbook. For financial reporting context, review the Financial Accounting Standards Board's revenue recognition guidance portal; this calculator is an operating-metrics model, not an accounting-recognition engine.
How the SaaS LTV formula works
The model uses the reference formula: LTV = 0.5 × lifetime × [2 × ARPA + expansion × (lifetime – 1)] × gross margin, where lifetime equals 1 divided by monthly churn as a decimal. When expansion is zero, the expression simplifies to ARPA × lifetime × gross margin. With positive expansion, the middle term adds the value of a linearly increasing ARPA assumption.
Gross margin should be calculated consistently from revenue and direct cost of revenue. The Corporate Finance Institute's explanation of gross margin ratio can help distinguish gross margin from markup or operating margin. For retention analysis, Stripe's guide to SaaS churn rate explains why customer churn and revenue churn answer different questions.